Joe III landslide victory seen
With only a few more days of campaigning left till election day, a victory for vice mayoralty candidate Jose Espinosa III is already seen based on a number of indicators – consistency, capability, and organizational strength.
According to Noel Tabhan, a political science professor and an intelligence analysis consultant with a military group, said the close race for the vice mayoralty slot as well as the number of strong candidates ultimately favors Espinosa.
In terms of consistency, he said, the various surveys show that Espinosa enjoys the advantage of momentum. Based on the recent survey, the analyst noted that Espinosa’s ratings have almost doubled since the start of the campaign while that of Jamjam Baronda, the former leading candidate has gone down severely. With Espinosa enjoying a slight advantage over Baronda at 36 and 34 points, respectively, in the latest survey the trend favors Espinosa tremendously. In this kind of contest, he said, the uptrend buoys up Espinosa’s candidacy immensely. At the same time, he said, it is extremely difficult to arrest the kind of slide that Baronda is suffering. The figures for the other candidates – lawyer Tony Pesina, Dr. Aquiles Hortillosa, and perennial candidate Mel Carreon are too minimal to be given any chance at victory, he added.
In terms of capability, the analyst explained that, again, Joe III Espinosa has the edge after displaying more substance not just in terms of capacity to lead but also credibility. As can be seen during the course of the campaign, particularly during the various media debates and forums, Joe Espinosa, a lawyer, has shown a better grasp of the issues and the responsibilities of the position they are vying for. These account for the very significant increase in Espinosa’s following, particularly among the intelligent and independent minded voters. Espinosa’s track records and squeaky clean image as a private citizen and public official is also quite a factor in his favor.
In contrast, Baronda has shown immaturity and lack of preparedness for the job. Baronda, he said, was also unable to rebut convincingly the issues of corruption and irresponsibility that were raised against her thus accounting for her freefall in the survey. Pesina has also done well in the debates but he spent most of his time damaging Baronda.
Finally, in terms of organizational strength, Joe III Espinosa enjoys a very decisive edge. Based on intelligence information from all political camps, Espinosa’s own political organization is solid and well entrenched, down to the precinct level. According to sources, the organization has been established and maintained since Espinosa first run for vice mayor as an independent in 2001.
On the other hand, Baronda’s campaign relied mostly on popularity and an organization which can be described as ragtag at best. Based on a loose coalition of former Sangguniang Kabataan leaders, the organization is informal, top heavy and susceptible to raids from other camps. The latter, in fact, has happened as some of Baronda’s key leaders have allied themselves with the Gonzalez camp which continues to push for Pesina while others have jumped to the Jamora bandwagon bringing their supporters with them.
Finally, Espinosa’s political machinery is more well-oiled than the others and is not reliant on campaign contributions and dole-outs.
All these factors, the analyst said, combine to favor Espinosa’s inevitable victory on May 10, 2010. “I will not be surprised if it turns into a landslide,” he added. (Paid PR)
